# Oats Rose to $4.16 After StatCan Saw Canada's Crop Shrink 22.7%

> CBOT oats rose 6.5% to $4.16 a bushel after Statistics Canada's model-based estimate put the 2026 Canadian oat crop 22.7% lower, to 3.03 million tonnes. Most of the decline came from a sharp cut in seeded acreage, while yield fell only 3.5%. Chicago prices now sit well above Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's forecast average.

- Date: 2026-09-22 · published 2026-09-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Canada · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/11993-oats-rose-to-4-16-after-statcan-saw-canada-s-crop-shrink-22-7
- Commodities: [Oats](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OATS.md)

## Why it matters

A large Canadian supply shortfall tightens the oat balance and supports prices. Chicago's premium over Ottawa's forecast suggests the market has priced in more tightness than the official outlook assumes.

## Read by commodity

- OATS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| OATS | 2026-08-21 | [Agriculture Canada Cuts Old-Crop ... \| Syngenta CA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17954-agriculture-canada-cuts-old-crop-syngenta-ca.md) | +3.2% | +20.6% |
| OATS | 2021-01-27 | [Smaller wheat and oat crops forecast for Canada \| 2021-01-27  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49209-smaller-wheat-and-oat-crops-forecast-for-canada-2021-01-27-world-grain.md) | -2.6% | +3.5% |
| OATS | 2026-10-06 | [Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook \| Oats Knows?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17165-canada-know-risk-market-outlook-oats-knows.md) | -1.5% | -17.5% |
| OATS | 2024-06-19 | [Oat outlook uncertain after tight supply from 2023 crop - Farmers Weekly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29830-oat-outlook-uncertain-after-tight-supply-from-2023-crop-farmers-weekly.md) | -10.3% | +0.7% |
| OATS | 2021-12-06 | [Canada`s Oat Production Down 43 Per Cent In 2021 \| Farms.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43657-canada-s-oat-production-down-43-per-cent-in-2021-farms-com.md) | -1.0% | -6.1% |

## Sources

- thetradersspread.com: https://thetradersspread.com/commodities/oats-rose-to-4-16-statcan-canada-crop-shrink-22-7-percent

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.