# FX Daily: EUR/USD drop is not overdone

> EUR/USD's weekly drop was partly justified by a widening short-term USD-EUR rate differential, according to ING, and the pair remains slightly overvalued in its short-term fair value model. The dollar was expected to stay supported, and the piece noted that commodity currencies were under pressure amid Ukraine-Russia risk and softer oil prices.

- Date: 2021-11-12 · published 2021-11-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/11954-fx-daily-eur-usd-drop-is-not-overdone
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Continued dollar support would keep dollar-denominated commodity prices under mild pressure, and softer commodity currencies can shift export competitiveness for feed grains.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2021-11-16 | 5 | -2.2% | -3.1 | ING analysis attributes the weekly EUR/USD drop to a widening short-term rate differential, supporting the fundamental driver. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2021-06-16 | [EUR/USD Logs Biggest Daily Loss in 15 Months – Noor Trends](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6132-eur-usd-logs-biggest-daily-loss-in-15-months-noor-trends.md) | -1.7% | -2.4% |
| EURUSD | 2023-10-25 | [FX Daily: Hawks versus data, part one \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33851-fx-daily-hawks-versus-data-part-one-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.3% | +2.6% |
| EURUSD | 2016-06-21 | [EUR/USD down on Draghi, Brexit and no help from Yellen](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6959-eur-usd-down-on-draghi-brexit-and-no-help-from-yellen.md) | -2.6% | -2.7% |
| EURUSD | 2022-03-16 | [EUR/USD: Not as cheap as it looks \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42470-eur-usd-not-as-cheap-as-it-looks-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.4% | -1.1% |
| EURUSD | 2023-04-28 | [EUR/USD Rate Forecast: Near-term Peak is Close DNB Bank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36618-eur-usd-rate-forecast-near-term-peak-is-close-dnb-bank.md) | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| DXY | 2021-06-16 | [EUR/USD Logs Biggest Daily Loss in 15 Months – Noor Trends](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6132-eur-usd-logs-biggest-daily-loss-in-15-months-noor-trends.md) | +1.4% | +1.4% |
| DXY | 2025-10-30 | [FX Daily: Fed discord delays dollar drop \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22615-fx-daily-fed-discord-delays-dollar-drop-ing-think.md) | +1.1% | +0.4% |
| DXY | 2017-05-29 | [USD: Bull move is over? - BBH — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71193-usd-bull-move-is-over-bbh-octa.md) | -0.4% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/articles/fx-daily-eur-usd-drop-is-not-overdone/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.