# FACTBOX: Oil surges as Israel strikes Iran nuclear sites, traders eye supply risks

> Front-month ICE Brent futures rose 8.97% on June 13, their largest one-day jump in as many as five years, after Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites and killed a top commander. No damage to energy infrastructure had been reported. Analysts said the outcome depends on whether Iranian oil exports are affected.

- Date: 2025-06-13 · published 2025-06-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Middle East · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10993-factbox-oil-surges-as-israel-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites-traders-eye-supply-risks
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

JP Morgan's worst-case scenario puts a loss of over 2.1 million b/d of Iranian exports, which could push Dated Brent to $120-$130 a barrel. That would raise energy costs across feed production and freight.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-06-13 | 5 | +11.2% | 3.1 | Brent's 8.97% one-day jump on June 13 after Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites was the main driver of the 5-day move, via a geopolitical supply-risk premium. |
| BRENT | 2025-06-13 | 1 | +7.3% | 3.3 | Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, and ICE Brent had its largest one-day jump in years as traders priced in risks to Iranian exports. |
| BRENT | 2025-06-17 | 5 | +15.0% | 3.3 | Front-month Brent had its largest one-day jump in years on June 13 as Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, which added a geopolitical supply-risk premium. |
| WTI | 2025-06-13 | 5 | +13.1% | 3.3 | Brent had its largest one-day jump in years after strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, with the price outcome dependent on Iranian export risk. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-06-13 | [Oil settles up 7% as Israel, Iran trade air strikes \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10991-oil-settles-up-7-as-israel-iran-trade-air-strikes-reuters.md) | +12.0% | -0.8% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-09 | [Instant View: Oil surges 20% as Iran war fuels supply fears \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5573-instant-view-oil-surges-20-as-iran-war-fuels-supply-fears-reuters.md) | +9.5% | +25.6% |
| BRENT | 2025-06-13 | [Oil prices surge after Israel's strike on Iran \| CBC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10997-oil-prices-surge-after-israel-s-strike-on-iran-cbc-news.md) | +12.0% | -0.8% |
| BRENT | 2025-06-16 | [European oil products rise further amid fresh Israel-Iran strikes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8386-european-oil-products-rise-further-amid-fresh-israel-iran-strikes.md) | +3.7% | -5.2% |
| BRENT | 2020-01-07 | [US, Iran tensions: Oil traders fear supply disruptions in Middle East](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55332-us-iran-tensions-oil-traders-fear-supply-disruptions-in-middle-east.md) | -7.8% | -22.1% |
| WTI | 2025-06-13 | [Oil settles up 7% as Israel, Iran trade air strikes \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10991-oil-settles-up-7-as-israel-iran-trade-air-strikes-reuters.md) | +10.2% | +1.1% |
| WTI | 2026-03-09 | [Instant View: Oil surges 20% as Iran war fuels supply fears \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5573-instant-view-oil-surges-20-as-iran-war-fuels-supply-fears-reuters.md) | +8.5% | +25.0% |
| WTI | 2025-06-13 | [Oil prices surge after Israel's strike on Iran \| CBC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10997-oil-prices-surge-after-israel-s-strike-on-iran-cbc-news.md) | +10.2% | +1.1% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/061325-factbox-oil-surges-as-israel-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites-traders-eye-supply-risks

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.