# USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought - AgWeb

> USDA projected the smallest US wheat harvest since 1972 due to Plains drought, with hard red winter output the lowest in decades. It also forecast the second-largest soybean crop on record and a 6% drop in corn production. Fertilizer costs rose after the Strait of Hormuz closure.

- Date: 2026-05-12 · published 2026-05-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10792-usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-harvest-since-1972-due-to-plains-drought-agweb
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Sharply lower wheat output and a smaller corn crop tighten feed grain supplies, while record soybean output and soybean meal supply weigh on meal prices. Higher fertilizer and fuel costs raise production costs.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-11 | 1 | +7.0% | 3.5 | USDA's projection of the smallest US wheat crop since 1972 due to Plains drought, plus higher fertilizer costs, supports the supply-driven rally. |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-11 | 1 | +3.2% | 3.6 | Smallest US wheat harvest since 1972 from drought tightens supply, supporting price. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-10 | [USDA forecasts smallest wheat harvest since 1970 \| Farmtario](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18275-usda-forecasts-smallest-wheat-harvest-since-1970-farmtario.md) | +0.9% | +0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-14 | [Canada cuts canola, wheat estimates further due to drought](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45044-canada-cuts-canola-wheat-estimates-further-due-to-drought.md) | -3.3% | +4.8% |
| WHEAT | 2020-02-18 | [Australia says 2019/20 wheat harvest drops to lowest in 12 years](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54573-australia-says-2019-20-wheat-harvest-drops-to-lowest-in-12-years.md) | -0.9% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2021-11-15 | [Prairie cash wheat: Bids jump after USDA projects cuts - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44082-prairie-cash-wheat-bids-jump-after-usda-projects-cuts-agcanada.md) | +0.6% | -6.5% |
| WHEAT | 2019-02-18 | [Australian wheat production falls to 11-year low as drought bites](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60572-australian-wheat-production-falls-to-11-year-low-as-drought-bites.md) | -1.6% | -3.4% |
| SOY | 2019-05-10 | [Wheat down on higher USDA crop projection - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5742-wheat-down-on-higher-usda-crop-projection-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +4.9% | +7.0% |
| SOY | 2022-09-30 | [Key data in USDA stocks and wheat harvest reports, and difference from market forecasts - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39554-key-data-in-usda-stocks-and-wheat-harvest-reports-and-difference-from-market.md) | -3.7% | -2.0% |
| SOY | 2021-09-30 | [U.S. wheat stocks fall after harvest shortfalls](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45038-u-s-wheat-stocks-fall-after-harvest-shortfalls.md) | -3.3% | -3.5% |

## Sources

- agri-pulse.com: https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/24664-usda-expects-smallest-wheat-crop-in-decades-less-corn-more-soybeans
- agweb.com: https://www.agweb.com/news/usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-harvest-1972-due-plains-drought
- producer.com: https://www.producer.com/market-update/u-s-grain-oilseed-review-usda-releases-may-supply-demand-estimates/
- thehindubusinessline.com: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/us-wheat-harvest-set-to-hit-lowest-level-since-1972-amid-severe-plains-drought/article70971388.ece

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.