# It's not just oil: Why Iran war also threatens Asia's food security

> Fertilizer shipments to Asia have stalled because of the Hormuz closure following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February. Thai fertilizer prices have jumped from 800-900 baht to over 1,100 baht per sack, and some farmers are skipping planting.

- Date: 2026-05-01 · published 2026-05-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10732-it-s-not-just-oil-why-iran-war-also-threatens-asia-s-food-security
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Reduced fertilizer application in Asian rice systems threatens yields and could tighten rice supply, supporting rice prices later in the year.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-05-06 | 5 | +12.1% | 3.5 | Stalled fertilizer shipments via Hormuz and higher fertilizer prices push Asian farmers to skip planting, an input-cost supply channel underpinning the rally. |
| RICE | 2026-05-04 | 5 | +11.2% | 3.8 | Stalled fertilizer shipments through Hormuz and higher fertilizer prices are causing some farmers to skip planting, which is a supply-side driver. |
| RICE | 2026-05-03 | 1 | +4.6% | 3.1 | Stalled fertilizer shipments to Asia from the Hormuz closure raise input costs and the risk of reduced planting, which supports a supply-driven price rise. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-04-30 | [From surplus to strain: Iran war and El Nino threaten global rice supply - The Japan Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10153-from-surplus-to-strain-iran-war-and-el-nino-threaten-global-rice-supply-the.md) | +12.1% | +22.7% |
| RICE | 2026-05-01 | [Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10155-thai-and-vietnamese-farmers-may-stop-planting-rice-because-of-the-iran-war-here.md) | +8.1% | +16.8% |
| RICE | 2026-09-25 | [What’s Behind the Latest Surge in Grain and Oilseed Prices?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11998-what-s-behind-the-latest-surge-in-grain-and-oilseed-prices.md) | -0.3% | +5.4% |
| RICE | 2020-03-26 | [Concern mounts that exporters will curb sales of food staples amid lockdowns \| The Straits Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54090-concern-mounts-that-exporters-will-curb-sales-of-food-staples-amid-lockdowns.md) | +3.2% | +22.4% |
| RICE | 2022-03-17 | [Rice Prices Rise in Asia Amid Stockpiling, Conflict - Laotian Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11339-rice-prices-rise-in-asia-amid-stockpiling-conflict-laotian-times.md) | +0.8% | -0.7% |
| UREA | 2023-03-01 | [War-induced fertilizer crunch threatens global food security \| World Economic Forum](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36787-war-induced-fertilizer-crunch-threatens-global-food-security-world-economic.md) | -3.9% | -2.6% |
| UREA | 2026-03-25 | [Fertilizer prices surge amid Iran war, sparking food security warnings](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20097-fertilizer-prices-surge-amid-iran-war-sparking-food-security-warnings.md) | +2.1% | +11.5% |
| UREA | 2020-06-06 | [From the Persian Gulf to the granaries of Lithuania: the war in Iran threatens a price shock for food and fertiliser - Agrobitė](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52545-from-the-persian-gulf-to-the-granaries-of-lithuania-the-war-in-iran-threatens-a.md) | +1.3% | +7.1% |

## Sources

- bbc.com: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c208yl1jkl7o

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.