# BRL Weakens After BCB and Fed Rate Decisions

> The Brazilian real traded above 5.15 per USD in June after the Banco Central do Brasil cut the Selic rate by 0.25 points to 14.25% and the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% with a hawkish tone. The real later strengthened to 5.06 per USD in July, its highest in seven weeks, as carry-trade interest returned amid US-Iran hostilities.

- Date: 2026-06-18 · published 2026-06-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10642-brl-weakens-after-bcb-and-fed-rate-decisions
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Narrowing rate differentials and a firmer real change the cost of Brazilian-origin feed ingredients and export competitiveness for soybeans, meal and corn, with the currency swing feeding into Brazilian export pricing.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2026-06-18 | 1 | +2.2% | 3.4 | Dated on the move day, it describes the BCB's Selic cut to 14.25% and a hawkish Fed hold, which narrowed the rate differential and pushed BRL weaker above 5.15 per USD; the July strengthening detail is later and not relevant. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2025-09-26 | [Dollar weakens against the real after US inflation data \| Brasil 247](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23088-dollar-weakens-against-the-real-after-us-inflation-data-brasil-247.md) | +0.4% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2021-12-08 | [Brazil's real rallies over 1% ahead of interest rate decision \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43829-brazil-s-real-rallies-over-1-ahead-of-interest-rate-decision-financial-post.md) | +0.7% | +1.3% |
| USDBRL | 2024-09-18 | [Dollar falls for the 6th session against the real after larger interest rate cut by the Fed \| Brasil 247](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12466-dollar-falls-for-the-6th-session-against-the-real-after-larger-interest-rate.md) | -0.6% | +2.9% |
| USDBRL | 2018-12-04 | [Brazil stocks gain; real firms as U.S. dollar weakens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61764-brazil-stocks-gain-real-firms-as-u-s-dollar-weakens.md) | +2.1% | -3.1% |
| USDBRL | 2026-07-29 | [Brazilian Real Gains as Fed Holds Rates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18564-brazilian-real-gains-as-fed-holds-rates.md) | -0.0% | +0.7% |
| SBM | 2017-03-30 | [BRL: downside risks, moderate decline expected - BBH — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72188-brl-downside-risks-moderate-decline-expected-bbh-octa.md) | -1.9% | -1.7% |
| SBM | 2025-12-03 | [Brazilian Real Strengthens for 2nd Session](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8058-brazilian-real-strengthens-for-2nd-session.md) | -3.2% | -4.0% |
| SBM | 2022-06-15 | [EMERGING MARKETS - Latam FX slips after bruising selloff, Peru's sol rises - Monex USA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41237-emerging-markets-latam-fx-slips-after-bruising-selloff-peru-s-sol-rises-monex.md) | +4.2% | +12.9% |

## Sources

- tradingeconomics.com: https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/currency/news/560121

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.