# USDA forecasts record US soybean production and higher stocks, above market estimates - Fastmarkets

> USDA's August WASDE raised the 2024/25 US soybean crop estimate to 4.6 billion bushels, a record and above market expectations. It also raised US export and ending stock forecasts and global ending stocks.

- Date: 2024-08-13 · published 2024-08-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10464-usda-forecasts-record-us-soybean-production-and-higher-stocks-above-market
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A larger-than-expected US crop and higher stocks add supply, which pressured soybean futures and supports lower prices for soybean meal buyers.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-08-15 | 5 | -8.7% | -3.8 | USDA raised the 2024/25 US soybean crop to a record above market expectations and lifted stocks, adding supply pressure. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2017-08-10 | [USDA Forecasts Record-High Soybean Production in 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69299-usda-forecasts-record-high-soybean-production-in-2017.md) | -4.3% | +0.0% |
| SOY | 2025-09-12 | [USDA Ups Corn and Soybean Production Estimates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22795-usda-ups-corn-and-soybean-production-estimates.md) | +2.2% | +0.7% |
| SOY | 2016-11-09 | [Corn, soybean markets drop after USDA hikes production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73821-corn-soybean-markets-drop-after-usda-hikes-production.md) | -1.6% | +2.5% |
| SOY | 2019-03-29 | [U.S. March Soybean Stocks Hit Record High, USDA Data Drops Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60042-u-s-march-soybean-stocks-hit-record-high-usda-data-drops-markets.md) | +1.9% | -4.0% |
| SOY | 2023-05-15 | [USDA Ending Stocks Reveal Record Projections for Corn and Soybeans - ProAg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35890-usda-ending-stocks-reveal-record-projections-for-corn-and-soybeans-proag.md) | -8.9% | -4.3% |
| SBM | 2017-08-10 | [USDA Forecasts Record-High Soybean Production in 2017](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69299-usda-forecasts-record-high-soybean-production-in-2017.md) | -3.9% | -1.4% |
| SBM | 2025-09-12 | [USDA Ups Corn and Soybean Production Estimates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22795-usda-ups-corn-and-soybean-production-estimates.md) | -1.4% | -5.4% |
| SBM | 2016-11-09 | [Corn, soybean markets drop after USDA hikes production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73821-corn-soybean-markets-drop-after-usda-hikes-production.md) | -2.3% | -1.0% |

## Sources

- fastmarkets.com: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/usda-forecasts-record-us-soybean-production-and-higher-stocks-above-market-estimates/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.