# Looking to a turn in the commodity price cycle - CRU Group

> CRU expects a near universal year-on-year fall in commodity prices in 2023 as recession risks in Europe and the US, high inflation and China disruption weigh on demand. Its fertiliser price basket is forecast to fall 31.8%, compared with 16.9% for raw materials and 16.7% for metals.

- Date: 2023-01-09 · published 2023-01-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10450-looking-to-a-turn-in-the-commodity-price-cycle-cru-group
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

A forecast fall in fertilizer prices and broader commodity demand destruction points to lower input costs for feed producers, though weaker demand may also pressure feed ingredient and energy prices.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bearish ▼
- UREA: bearish ▼
- POTASH: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2023-03-20 | [Global Natural Gas Prices Keep Falling as Demand Weakens, Banking Crisis Weighs on Markets – LNG Recap](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37032-global-natural-gas-prices-keep-falling-as-demand-weakens-banking-crisis-weighs.md) | +0.3% | +13.2% |
| UREA | 2022-11-29 | [Europe: Nitrates prices decline following restarts; now nearing breakeven levels](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7856-europe-nitrates-prices-decline-following-restarts-now-nearing-breakeven-levels.md) | -4.0% | -7.5% |
| UREA | 2023-03-24 | [US natgas prices slump after mild winter leaves big surplus \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37027-us-natgas-prices-slump-after-mild-winter-leaves-big-surplus-reuters.md) | -0.8% | +13.0% |
| UREA | 2022-06-23 | [Recession worries trigger grains selloff – The Seam](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12700-recession-worries-trigger-grains-selloff-the-seam.md) | +0.2% | +3.7% |
| UREA | 2026-06-23 | [Natural gas: Lower TTF path but winter risks – Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18990-natural-gas-lower-ttf-path-but-winter-risks-rabobank.md) | -2.1% | -1.4% |
| DAP | 2022-08-31 | [European Fertilizer Production Falls Due to High Gas Prices 31.08.2022 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40340-european-fertilizer-production-falls-due-to-high-gas-prices-31-08-2022.md) | +0.7% | -0.7% |
| DAP | 2026-07-30 | [Brazil fertilizer deliveries seen falling at least 10%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18687-brazil-fertilizer-deliveries-seen-falling-at-least-10.md) | +1.6% | +1.6% |

## Sources

- crugroup.com: https://www.crugroup.com/en/communities/thought-leadership/2023/looking-to-a-turn-in-the-commodity-price-cycle/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.