# Refiners and Crude Prices Can't Escape Diesel Backlog- DTN

> US distillate stocks remain about 33% above year-ago levels and ULSD margins are sharply lower year over year. Refinery runs are expected to weaken as gasoline demand seasonally declines after Labor Day. Global crude time spreads moved into deeper contango, signaling softening refinery-level demand.

- Date: 2020-09-04 · published 2020-09-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10231-refiners-and-crude-prices-can-t-escape-diesel-backlog-dtn
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

Excess diesel and crude inventories and falling refinery runs point to weaker energy demand and bearish crude pricing over the coming weeks.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- DIESEL: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DIESEL | 2020-09-08 | 1 | -6.0% | -3.4 | Elevated US distillate stocks and weak ULSD margins, with seasonally weaker refinery demand after Labor Day, left diesel vulnerable to a selloff. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2018-02-07 | [Oil prices tank as US crude and fuel stockpiles jump](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11357-oil-prices-tank-as-us-crude-and-fuel-stockpiles-jump.md) | -6.6% | -3.7% |
| WTI | 2019-05-22 | [Oil prices sink as US crude and gasoline stockpiles rise](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9794-oil-prices-sink-as-us-crude-and-gasoline-stockpiles-rise.md) | -6.4% | -14.5% |
| WTI | 2019-05-30 | [EIA Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices Update, May 29, 2019 - Fuels Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10407-eia-gasoline-and-diesel-retail-prices-update-may-29-2019-fuels-market-news.md) | -12.3% | +0.7% |
| WTI | 2018-11-21 | [EIA Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices Update, November 20, 2018 - Fuels Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9532-eia-gasoline-and-diesel-retail-prices-update-november-20-2018-fuels-market-news.md) | -6.1% | -10.7% |
| WTI | 2018-12-18 | [EIA Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices Update, December 18, 2018 - Fuels Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61740-eia-gasoline-and-diesel-retail-prices-update-december-18-2018-fuels-market-news.md) | -10.9% | +4.7% |
| BRENT | 2018-02-07 | [Oil prices tank as US crude and fuel stockpiles jump](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11357-oil-prices-tank-as-us-crude-and-fuel-stockpiles-jump.md) | -6.7% | -1.6% |
| BRENT | 2019-05-22 | [Oil prices sink as US crude and gasoline stockpiles rise](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9794-oil-prices-sink-as-us-crude-and-gasoline-stockpiles-rise.md) | -3.5% | -14.1% |
| BRENT | 2023-06-01 | [EIA expects lower crude oil prices for the second half of 2023 and for 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36102-eia-expects-lower-crude-oil-prices-for-the-second-half-of-2023-and-for-2024.md) | +6.3% | +2.1% |

## Sources

- dtn.com: https://www.dtn.com/refiners-and-crude-prices-cant-escape-diesel-backlog-as-seasonal-gasoline-demand-weakness-approaches/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.