# Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why

> Thai and Vietnamese rice farmers are considering cutting plantings as diesel prices have roughly doubled and fertilizer costs have risen due to the Iran war. Thailand's 2026 export target of seven million tonnes is under pressure from supply disruptions and high freight costs.

- Date: 2026-05-01 · published 2026-05-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10155-thai-and-vietnamese-farmers-may-stop-planting-rice-because-of-the-iran-war-here
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

Reduced planting intentions in major exporters point to tighter rice supply later in 2026. Higher freight and input costs also raise export prices.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- DIESEL: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-05-06 | 5 | +12.1% | 3.5 | Thai and Vietnamese farmers considering cutting plantings as diesel and fertilizer costs surge threatens export supply, supporting higher prices. |
| RICE | 2026-05-03 | 1 | +4.6% | 3.1 | Reports on 2026-05-01 that Thai and Vietnamese farmers may cut plantings because diesel and fertilizer costs have surged (input costs, supply risk) fit a sharp rally in the days before 2026-05-03. |
| RICE | 2026-05-04 | 5 | +11.2% | 3.8 | Thai and Vietnamese farmers may cut plantings because diesel and fertilizer costs have risen sharply, raising supply concerns and input-cost-driven price support. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2022-07-06 | [Wheat shortages bode well for Vietnamese rice](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40569-wheat-shortages-bode-well-for-vietnamese-rice.md) | +2.4% | +6.0% |
| RICE | 2026-04-30 | [From surplus to strain: Iran war and El Nino threaten global rice supply - The Japan Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10153-from-surplus-to-strain-iran-war-and-el-nino-threaten-global-rice-supply-the.md) | +12.1% | +22.7% |
| RICE | 2023-04-03 | [7 factors affecting the rice market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36492-7-factors-affecting-the-rice-market.md) | -5.8% | +0.5% |
| RICE | 2018-04-23 | [Egypt's rice farmers see rough times downstream of new Nile mega-dam](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10865-egypt-s-rice-farmers-see-rough-times-downstream-of-new-nile-mega-dam.md) | -1.4% | -5.1% |
| RICE | 2026-09-25 | [What’s Behind the Latest Surge in Grain and Oilseed Prices?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11998-what-s-behind-the-latest-surge-in-grain-and-oilseed-prices.md) | -0.3% | +5.4% |
| DIESEL | 2026-09-18 | [From war to weather, Australian farmers are planting spring crops in an uncertain world](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17455-from-war-to-weather-australian-farmers-are-planting-spring-crops-in-an.md) | -6.6% | -4.9% |
| DIESEL | 2026-04-02 | [Oil price jumps and markets slide after Trump warning to Iran \| Oil \| The Guardian](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12923-oil-price-jumps-and-markets-slide-after-trump-warning-to-iran-oil-the-guardian.md) | -2.9% | +2.5% |
| DIESEL | 2026-03-18 | [Ag shippers face rising diesel costs, and farmers could share the bill \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20357-ag-shippers-face-rising-diesel-costs-and-farmers-could-share-the-bill-agri.md) | +4.8% | -6.6% |

## Sources

- businesstimes.com.sg: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/thai-and-vietnamese-farmers-may-stop-planting-rice-because-iran-war-heres-why

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.