# From surplus to strain: Iran war and El Nino threaten global rice supply - The Japan Times

> Rice supply is expected to fall this year as Asian farmers cut acreage due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs from the Iran war. An emerging El Niño is also expected to squeeze output in top exporters and importers.

- Date: 2026-04-30 · published 2026-04-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Asia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10153-from-surplus-to-strain-iran-war-and-el-nino-threaten-global-rice-supply-the
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Expected output declines in major exporters like Thailand and Vietnam tighten global rice supply and can lift prices. Rice price moves have limited direct effect on feed formulation.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-05-06 | 5 | +12.1% | 3.5 | Expected lower global rice supply from reduced Asian acreage (fertilizer, fuel costs from Iran war) and El Niño raised supply-risk premium in the days leading to the move. |
| RICE | 2026-05-04 | 5 | +11.2% | 3.8 | Reports of Asian acreage cuts from fertilizer and fuel costs plus El Niño risk point to tighter supply, which supports a rally in rice futures. |
| RICE | 2026-05-03 | 1 | +4.6% | 3.1 | The 2026-04-30 report of expected lower global rice supply from acreage cuts and El Niño adds to supply-risk sentiment just before the move. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-03-05 | [How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6255-how-the-iran-war-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-an-often-ignored-global-risk.md) | +2.4% | +4.6% |
| CORN | 2022-02-24 | [Ukraine Invasion Threatens Global Wheat Supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6311-ukraine-invasion-threatens-global-wheat-supply.md) | +6.5% | +12.3% |
| CORN | 2026-06-19 | [Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply \| Tridge Insights](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14110-rising-attacks-on-ukrainian-black-sea-ports-threaten-grain-export-capacity-and.md) | -1.1% | +0.9% |
| CORN | 2023-01-12 | [Corn prices to stay elevated as global supplies ‘remain tight’](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37801-corn-prices-to-stay-elevated-as-global-supplies-remain-tight.md) | +2.2% | +2.2% |
| CORN | 2022-06-03 | [Feed the world: supply strains from the war in Ukraine - Hatchery InternationalHatchery International](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41042-feed-the-world-supply-strains-from-the-war-in-ukraine-hatchery.md) | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| RICE | 2026-05-01 | [Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10155-thai-and-vietnamese-farmers-may-stop-planting-rice-because-of-the-iran-war-here.md) | +8.1% | +16.8% |
| RICE | 2026-05-01 | [It's not just oil: Why Iran war also threatens Asia's food security](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10732-it-s-not-just-oil-why-iran-war-also-threatens-asia-s-food-security.md) | +8.1% | +16.8% |
| RICE | 2026-09-25 | [What’s Behind the Latest Surge in Grain and Oilseed Prices?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11998-what-s-behind-the-latest-surge-in-grain-and-oilseed-prices.md) | -0.3% | +5.4% |

## Sources

- japantimes.co.jp: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/05/01/world-rice-supply-strain/
- thestar.com.my: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/04/30/from-surplus-to-strain-world-rice-supply-threatened-by-iran-war-el-nino

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.