# Strong El Niño Forecast to Exacerbate Drought and Flood Risks Impacting Brazil's Agri-Food Sector

> A strong to very strong El Niño is expected through early 2027, worsening drought in the North and Northeast and raising flood risks in the South. Environmental emergencies have been declared in Pará, Amazonas, Bahia and Sergipe, with falling river levels disrupting water supply, forest fires and river transport.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-15T15:18:38.503Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/101469-strong-el-nino-forecast-to-exacerbate-drought-and-flood-risks-impacting-brazil
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Low river levels in the Amazon and Northeast can disrupt barge and river transport of grain and feed, adding logistics costs. Most of the impact falls on regional food and fishing supply rather than on major feed commodities.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2023-01-27 | [Watching Northwest/North Brazil Second Corn Crop for Drought Risk - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13674-watching-northwest-north-brazil-second-corn-crop-for-drought-risk-climate.md) | +0.7% | +0.4% |
| SOY | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | +0.4% | +1.5% |
| SOY | 2023-05-02 | [Anticipating The Impact of El Niño on Food Security](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35871-anticipating-the-impact-of-el-nino-on-food-security.md) | +1.0% | -10.9% |
| SOY | 2023-09-26 | [After historic drought, El Niño rains pose new hurdle for Brazil’s farmers](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13625-after-historic-drought-el-nino-rains-pose-new-hurdle-for-brazil-s-farmers.md) | -1.6% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2025-03-25 | [The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events - NOAA/AOML](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25500-the-growing-impact-of-enso-on-u-s-extreme-drought-and-flood-events-noaa-aoml.md) | +0.7% | +2.8% |
| CORN | 2023-01-27 | [Watching Northwest/North Brazil Second Corn Crop for Drought Risk - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13674-watching-northwest-north-brazil-second-corn-crop-for-drought-risk-climate.md) | -1.1% | -1.9% |
| CORN | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | +0.9% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2023-05-02 | [Anticipating The Impact of El Niño on Food Security](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35871-anticipating-the-impact-of-el-nino-on-food-security.md) | +2.7% | -5.8% |

## Sources

- insights.tridge.com: https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLbeZ28rKDPLJcJbK6keNY27

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.