# How November rain will decide the 2026/27 soybean crop

> Conab projects a record 2026/27 soybean crop of 181.62 million tonnes. Forecasts for a very strong El Niño point to excess rain in southern Brazil, including southern Santa Catarina, and a risk of dry conditions in the Center-West and North. November planting timing will determine whether the following safrinha corn crop is delayed into early 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-15 · published 2026-11-15T15:18:38.124Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/101465-how-november-rain-will-decide-the-2026-27-soybean-crop
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Planting delays in the Center-West would push soybean harvests later and squeeze the safrinha corn window, tightening feed grain supply in early 2027. The record projection limits the price upside unless the November rains fail.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-09-12 | [The 2025 soybean crop as we approach harvest - farmdoc](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13059-the-2025-soybean-crop-as-we-approach-harvest-farmdoc.md) | +2.2% | +0.7% |
| SOY | 2024-06-21 | [Stress and the 2024 corn and soybean crops - farmdoc](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13176-stress-and-the-2024-corn-and-soybean-crops-farmdoc.md) | -0.3% | -5.0% |
| SOY | 2026-08-05 | [Dry Spell in Key Brazilian Soybean Regions Threatens Timely Planting of 2026/27 Crop — BRZ News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13422-dry-spell-in-key-brazilian-soybean-regions-threatens-timely-planting-of-2026-27.md) | -0.6% | +13.1% |
| SOY | 2023-08-28 | [Are November Soybeans Getting Overdone on This Rally?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34600-are-november-soybeans-getting-overdone-on-this-rally.md) | -1.8% | -6.0% |
| SOY | 2026-11-09 | [El Niño could cause the loss of “one Mato Grosso do Sul’s worth of soybeans” in the 2026/27 crop, Serasa projects](https://feedsoft.ai/events/90195-el-nino-could-cause-the-loss-of-one-mato-grosso-do-sul-s-worth-of-soybeans-in.md) | +3.5% | — |
| CORN | 2024-06-21 | [Stress and the 2024 corn and soybean crops - farmdoc](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13176-stress-and-the-2024-corn-and-soybean-crops-farmdoc.md) | -5.5% | -8.4% |
| CORN | 2026-08-05 | [Dry Spell in Key Brazilian Soybean Regions Threatens Timely Planting of 2026/27 Crop — BRZ News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13422-dry-spell-in-key-brazilian-soybean-regions-threatens-timely-planting-of-2026-27.md) | -0.5% | +12.4% |
| CORN | 2023-04-06 | [Brazil: Rains at the end of March collaborated with the soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13657-brazil-rains-at-the-end-of-march-collaborated-with-the-soybean-crop-in-rio.md) | -0.4% | -2.0% |

## Sources

- redeauriverde.com: https://redeauriverde.com/regioes/como-a-chuva-de-novembro-decide-a-safra-de-soja-2026-27/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.