# Will Farms Fuel The Next Inflation Shock?

> Commentary argues that the next global inflation shock could emerge in agriculture rather than at the fuel pump, as farmers face rising fertilizer and diesel costs. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 in September, its highest since November 2022, with cereal prices up 17.2% year-on-year. An S&P Global report warns that energy disruptions, fertilizer shortages and El Niño could combine into a major food supply challenge.

- Date: 2026-11-15 · published 2026-11-15T15:17:49.857Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/101455-will-farms-fuel-the-next-inflation-shock
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher input costs and constrained fertilizer availability can cut future harvests with a months-long lag, which supports fertilizer prices and keeps grain prices firm even when energy prices ease.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- DIESEL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2021-12-06 | [This Chemical Is in Short Supply, and the Whole World Feels It](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43912-this-chemical-is-in-short-supply-and-the-whole-world-feels-it.md) | -0.3% | -1.0% |
| UREA | 2021-08-27 | [Supply Lines Latest: Global Inflation Is Coming for Fertilizer - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6007-supply-lines-latest-global-inflation-is-coming-for-fertilizer-bloomberg.md) | +10.6% | +24.4% |
| UREA | 2022-04-26 | [The International Fertilizer Industry Faces Multiple Challenges](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42135-the-international-fertilizer-industry-faces-multiple-challenges.md) | -18.3% | -18.8% |
| UREA | 2022-01-31 | [Fertilizer Price Increases: Should Farmers be Worried?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43465-fertilizer-price-increases-should-farmers-be-worried.md) | -5.9% | +6.1% |
| UREA | 2021-09-22 | [Nitrogen prices soar as high gas prices shut down production - Farmers Weekly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45383-nitrogen-prices-soar-as-high-gas-prices-shut-down-production-farmers-weekly.md) | +2.2% | +39.6% |
| DIESEL | 2022-04-29 | [Thailand inflation spike may tilt odds in favour of early rate hikes - The Business Times](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42084-thailand-inflation-spike-may-tilt-odds-in-favour-of-early-rate-hikes-the.md) | -13.3% | -22.6% |
| DIESEL | 2019-12-11 | [Reaction in the diesel market to IMO 2020 is still to come: Platts - FreightWaves](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55751-reaction-in-the-diesel-market-to-imo-2020-is-still-to-come-platts-freightwaves.md) | +3.5% | -0.9% |
| DIESEL | 2017-07-17 | [Weekly Energy Market Situation, July 17, 2017 - Fuels Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70127-weekly-energy-market-situation-july-17-2017-fuels-market-news.md) | +0.1% | +7.9% |

## Sources

- forbesmiddleeast.com: https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/leadership/opinion/will-the-next-inflation-shock-start-on-the-farm-1

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.