# El Nino Is Just Getting Started. India Can Take One Hit, But Two Is Serious Trouble

> Maharashtra has 85% of its talukas in drought, Bihar farmers face an uncertain rabi season, and Rajasthan irrigation is failing as a strengthening El Niño cuts water supply. Economists say India's grain stocks can absorb one bad year but a second El Niño could drain the buffer within two to three years.

- Date: 2026-11-15 · published 2026-11-15T06:15:28.763Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/100813-el-nino-is-just-getting-started-india-can-take-one-hit-but-two-is-serious
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Drought-hit rabi wheat and other winter crops could fall 10-15% below normal, tightening Indian grain supply and raising import and export-restriction risk that would lift global wheat, rice and feed grain prices.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-14 | [Forecasts start fast-tracking El Nino, though jury still out on 'super' event -Braun](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36312-forecasts-start-fast-tracking-el-nino-though-jury-still-out-on-super-event-braun.md) | +8.4% | -1.3% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-18 | [Canadian crops in serious need of a good drink - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34992-canadian-crops-in-serious-need-of-a-good-drink-grain-central.md) | +2.0% | +1.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-09-26 | [Unfavorable Ocean Combination Including Strong El Nino Dries Out Australia's Wheat Moisture Forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34003-unfavorable-ocean-combination-including-strong-el-nino-dries-out-australia-s.md) | -5.4% | -2.2% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-16 | [Explainer: Why El Nino is a concern for Indian monsoon rains?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35897-explainer-why-el-nino-is-a-concern-for-indian-monsoon-rains.md) | -2.2% | -7.3% |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | +3.5% | -0.1% |
| RICE | 2023-05-05 | [‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO   - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35870-developing-el-nino-may-hit-india-s-maize-soya-and-rice-output-says-fao-the.md) | +1.8% | -0.5% |
| RICE | 2023-09-30 | [India's monsoon rains hit five-year low due to El Nino](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34001-india-s-monsoon-rains-hit-five-year-low-due-to-el-nino.md) | +0.8% | +1.9% |
| RICE | 2017-03-14 | [Weak El Nino to have small impact on Asian crops this year \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71913-weak-el-nino-to-have-small-impact-on-asian-crops-this-year-the-star.md) | +2.4% | +6.7% |

## Sources

- ndtvprofit.com: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/economy/el-nino-is-just-getting-started-india-can-take-one-hit-but-two-is-serious-trouble-12328910

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.