# Market bets on big ECB rate hike evaporate on renewed bank turmoil | Reuters

> Traders scaled back bets on a large European Central Bank rate hike this week as unease spread through markets. The euro fell 1.8% against the dollar, its biggest one-day drop since March 2020.

- Date: 2023-03-15 · published 2023-03-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10076-market-bets-on-big-ecb-rate-hike-evaporate-on-renewed-bank-turmoil-reuters
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Financial stress shifts the macro backdrop for commodities by weakening the euro and dollar moves that feed into dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices, while expectations of tighter policy ease.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2023-03-15 | 1 | -1.7% | -3.5 | Reuters reports the euro fell 1.8% on the day as ECB hike bets were scaled back on bank turmoil, directly describing the move and its rate-expectation driver. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2022-06-28 | [Euro dips as markets manage expectations of ECB rate hikes \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41157-euro-dips-as-markets-manage-expectations-of-ecb-rate-hikes-reuters.md) | -3.3% | -4.6% |
| EURUSD | 2021-10-28 | [ECB's Lagarde sees higher inflation; pushes back on rate-hike bets \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7162-ecb-s-lagarde-sees-higher-inflation-pushes-back-on-rate-hike-bets-reuters.md) | -0.1% | -2.6% |
| EURUSD | 2026-09-10 | [Euro slips as dollar rises after ECB rate hike \| MarketScreener](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17698-euro-slips-as-dollar-rises-after-ecb-rate-hike-marketscreener.md) | -0.8% | -3.8% |
| EURUSD | 2019-02-07 | [EUR/USD: Hits two-week low, downside exposed as markets push back ECB rate hike bets to end 2020 — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60825-eur-usd-hits-two-week-low-downside-exposed-as-markets-push-back-ecb-rate-hike.md) | -0.8% | -1.2% |
| EURUSD | 2022-06-09 | [Stocks, euro slip as ECB sets rate hikes, CPI looms \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9634-stocks-euro-slip-as-ecb-sets-rate-hikes-cpi-looms-reuters.md) | -3.3% | -5.2% |
| DXY | 2021-10-12 | [Money markets ramp up global rate hike bets, add pressure on central banks \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44808-money-markets-ramp-up-global-rate-hike-bets-add-pressure-on-central-banks.md) | -0.5% | -0.7% |
| DXY | 2022-09-26 | [Bank of England 'will not hesitate' to act as it monitors market turmoil \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39831-bank-of-england-will-not-hesitate-to-act-as-it-monitors-market-turmoil-reuters.md) | +0.2% | +0.6% |
| DXY | 2022-06-28 | [Euro dips as markets manage expectations of ECB rate hikes \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41157-euro-dips-as-markets-manage-expectations-of-ecb-rate-hikes-reuters.md) | +2.0% | +2.2% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-rout-sees-markets-scale-down-chances-half-point-ecb-hike-2023-03-15/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.