# Brazil's wheat crop to fall by a third as imports rise, Conab says

> Conab cut Brazil's 2026 wheat production forecast by 8.2% to 5.26 million tonnes, citing reduced area and excessive El Niño-linked rainfall that damaged yields and milling quality. It raised its import forecast to 8.94 million tonnes and lowered ending stocks to 436,500 tonnes.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-15T00:19:22.980Z
- Category: report · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/100298-brazil-s-wheat-crop-to-fall-by-a-third-as-imports-rise-conab-says
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp output drop and higher imports tighten Brazil's domestic wheat supply and increase demand on world exporters, supporting wheat prices. The damaged quality also shifts more crop into feed-grade wheat.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-19 | [Wheat/barley price prospects on the rise; oilseeds to fall: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64497-wheat-barley-price-prospects-on-the-rise-oilseeds-to-fall-abares-grain-central.md) | -0.7% | -3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-09-30 | [Wheat, corn rise, soybeans fall after USDA numbers - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39611-wheat-corn-rise-soybeans-fall-after-usda-numbers-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +0.4% | -10.7% |
| WHEAT | 2021-07-30 | [A new decline in crop forecasts for the US, Canada and Russia continued to raise wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46103-a-new-decline-in-crop-forecasts-for-the-us-canada-and-russia-continued-to-raise.md) | +1.6% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-07-05 | [EU wheat harvest to fall due heat in north, French crop damage: Reuters poll](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63979-eu-wheat-harvest-to-fall-due-heat-in-north-french-crop-damage-reuters-poll.md) | -1.6% | +4.3% |
| WHEAT | 2022-11-21 | [China’s October corn imports fall by 57.9% year-on-year - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14887-china-s-october-corn-imports-fall-by-57-9-year-on-year-fastmarkets.md) | +0.2% | -2.4% |

## Sources

- agriinsite.com: https://agriinsite.com/brazils-wheat-crop-to-fall-by-a-third-as-imports-rise-conab-says/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.