# Inmet Points to 100% Chance of Very Strong El Niño, Peaking at 2.53 °C in Summer, While Sugar Line-Up Rises to 2 Million Tonnes

> Inmet and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center project a Pacific temperature anomaly of 2.53 °C from November to January, with 96% to 100% probability of a very strong El Niño. A transition to neutral conditions is possible in autumn 2027. Separately, sugar shipment bookings at Brazilian ports rose 34.5% to 2.02 million tonnes across 53 vessels.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-15T00:14:01.436Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/100246-inmet-points-to-100-chance-of-very-strong-el-nino-peaking-at-2-53-c-in-summer
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A very strong El Niño raises the risk of drought in parts of South America and irregular rain in Brazil's growing regions, which could cut crop supply and lift feed grain prices later in the season.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | +0.4% | +1.5% |
| SOY | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -1.7% | +13.5% |
| SOY | 2026-01-21 | [Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20954-timing-of-la-nina-exit-el-nino-entrance-is-unclear-raising-questions-about.md) | +1.4% | +7.6% |
| SOY | 2023-02-01 | [Weather Outlook Through Summer 2023 Points to Variability as La Nina Starts Decline](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37710-weather-outlook-through-summer-2023-points-to-variability-as-la-nina-starts.md) | -1.5% | -2.2% |
| SOY | 2021-04-26 | [Wheat price rises to highest in eight years on supply concerns \| Seeking Alpha](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47637-wheat-price-rises-to-highest-in-eight-years-on-supply-concerns-seeking-alpha.md) | +2.0% | -0.9% |
| CORN | 2026-04-09 | [Rising Odds of Strong El Niño Point to Global Weather and Crop Impacts - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19631-rising-odds-of-strong-el-nino-point-to-global-weather-and-crop-impacts-bloomberg.md) | +0.9% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -3.4% | -0.1% |
| CORN | 2026-01-21 | [Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20954-timing-of-la-nina-exit-el-nino-entrance-is-unclear-raising-questions-about.md) | +0.8% | +0.6% |

## Sources

- agrodiario.com.br: https://www.agrodiario.com.br/noticias/inmet-aponta-100-de-chance-de-el-nino-muito-forte-com-pico-de-2-53-c-no-verao-enquanto-lin-pvktqq

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.