# IBGE forecasts 2.6% smaller grain crop in 2027 due to El Niño

> Brazil's statistics agency IBGE issued its first 2027 forecast for the national grain crop at 346.6 million tonnes, 2.6% below the previous year. The estimate covers 83.2 million hectares and includes soybeans, corn, rice, beans, cotton and sorghum. It cites a strong El Niño, with excess rain in the South and irregular rainfall in the Center-West, and a 4.5 million tonne corn loss in Goiás.

- Date: 2026-11-14 · published 2026-11-15T00:14:01.345Z
- Category: report · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/100245-ibge-forecasts-2-6-smaller-grain-crop-in-2027-due-to-el-nino
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller Brazilian harvest reduces export availability of corn and soybeans and winter grains from the South, which supports global feed grain prices and raises import needs for buyers.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-03-13 | [India forecast to harvest record rice crop \| 2019-03-13  \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60050-india-forecast-to-harvest-record-rice-crop-2019-03-13-world-grain.md) | +4.3% | -1.0% |
| CORN | 2018-02-23 | [USDA sees mixed crop forecasts in 2018 \| World-grain.com \| February 23, 2018 15:54 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66354-usda-sees-mixed-crop-forecasts-in-2018-world-grain-com-february-23-2018-15-54.md) | +1.9% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2019-12-03 | [Grain crop review for November 2019](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55433-grain-crop-review-for-november-2019.md) | -3.7% | +0.7% |
| CORN | 2021-10-19 | [In October, the USDA reduced its grain crop and export forecasts for the Black Sea region 19.10.2021 - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44402-in-october-the-usda-reduced-its-grain-crop-and-export-forecasts-for-the-black.md) | +0.7% | +10.3% |
| CORN | 2018-06-11 | [COCERAL forecasts lower E.U. crop production \| World-grain.com \| June 11, 2018 12:32 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64474-coceral-forecasts-lower-e-u-crop-production-world-grain-com-june-11-2018-12-32.md) | -3.5% | -5.6% |
| SOY | 2018-02-23 | [USDA sees mixed crop forecasts in 2018 \| World-grain.com \| February 23, 2018 15:54 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66354-usda-sees-mixed-crop-forecasts-in-2018-world-grain-com-february-23-2018-15-54.md) | +2.5% | -0.2% |
| SOY | 2025-05-15 | [USDA forecasts lower US soybean stocks, record crush for 2025/26 \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24760-usda-forecasts-lower-us-soybean-stocks-record-crush-for-2025-26-feed-and-grain.md) | -0.4% | -2.3% |
| SOY | 2019-10-10 | [September estimates indicate record grain crop for 2019 \| News Agency](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56405-september-estimates-indicate-record-grain-crop-for-2019-news-agency.md) | +0.5% | -0.9% |

## Sources

- mundoagronews.com.br: https://mundoagronews.com.br/ibge-preve-safra-graos-2027-26-menor-el-nino/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.