# Crude Prices Plunge as Geopolitical Risk Premium Vanishes

> August WTI crude closed down 6.04% on Tuesday after President Trump announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire, and gasoline also fell sharply. Crude losses accelerated after Trump said China could keep buying Iranian oil, which fueled speculation of relief from Iranian sanctions. OPEC+ output increases of 411,000 bpd for July add to glut concerns.

- Date: 2025-06-24 · published 2025-06-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Middle East · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/10001-crude-prices-plunge-as-geopolitical-risk-premium-vanishes
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Removal of the geopolitical premium, possible Iranian sanctions relief, and OPEC+ supply increases all add bearish pressure to crude, lowering energy-linked costs for oilseed products. A weaker dollar index provides some offsetting support for dollar-priced commodities.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-06-25 | 5 | -13.5% | -3.7 | The Trump-announced Israel-Iran ceasefire and the sanctions-relief talk on Iranian oil drove a further ~6% drop on June 24, and OPEC+ supply additions added to glut concerns. |
| BRENT | 2025-06-26 | 5 | -14.7% | -3.6 | WTI fell 6% after the ceasefire; Trump's comment that China could keep buying Iranian oil and OPEC+ supply increases added bearish supply pressure. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2026-05-06 | [Brent Crude Price: Oil and gas plunge after report US and Iran near deal to end war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9582-brent-crude-price-oil-and-gas-plunge-after-report-us-and-iran-near-deal-to-end.md) | +0.0% | -5.8% |
| WTI | 2018-04-02 | [Oil falls as geopolitical anxiety 'comes racing out of the market'](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10847-oil-falls-as-geopolitical-anxiety-comes-racing-out-of-the-market.md) | -4.4% | +5.0% |
| WTI | 2024-10-28 | [Prompt Month Natural Gas Futures Sink 10% as Geopolitical Risks ‘Evaporate’ — MidDay Market Snapshot](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11712-prompt-month-natural-gas-futures-sink-10-as-geopolitical-risks-evaporate-midday.md) | -3.1% | -0.6% |
| WTI | 2026-03-25 | [Crude Prices Fall More Than 2%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11450-crude-prices-fall-more-than-2.md) | +10.2% | +1.3% |
| WTI | 2026-02-02 | [NYMEX Overview: Futures Move Lower as Geopolitical Tensions Cool -- OPIS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5921-nymex-overview-futures-move-lower-as-geopolitical-tensions-cool-opis.md) | -1.6% | +9.9% |
| BRENT | 2026-05-06 | [Brent Crude Price: Oil and gas plunge after report US and Iran near deal to end war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9582-brent-crude-price-oil-and-gas-plunge-after-report-us-and-iran-near-deal-to-end.md) | -2.3% | -11.1% |
| BRENT | 2018-04-02 | [Oil falls as geopolitical anxiety 'comes racing out of the market'](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10847-oil-falls-as-geopolitical-anxiety-comes-racing-out-of-the-market.md) | -4.1% | +7.7% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-25 | [Crude Prices Fall More Than 2%](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11450-crude-prices-fall-more-than-2.md) | +15.0% | +1.0% |

## Sources

- barchart.com: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/33030831/crude-prices-plunge-as-geopolitical-risk-premium-vanishes

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.