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The real accelerated its depreciation in early March 2020, with the dollar closing at $4.58 on Wednesday and the real down 13.9% year to date by Thursday. The central bank's $1 billion FX swap intervention failed to halt the decline.
Markets priced in further Selic rate cuts after the US Fed's 50 basis point cut, and Brazil's 2019 growth was confirmed at 1.1%.
Currency weakness and expected rate cuts raise the risk of a slowdown in Brazilian demand and make Brazilian export supply cheaper in dollars. Brazil's heavy reliance on China, which takes 27.6% of its exports, adds to the downside risk for agricultural prices.
euromoney.comRob Dwyer6 mar 2020Tras 301 eventos alcista de macro pasados, Real brasileño (BRL por USD) se movió una mediana de +0,4 % en 5 sesiones (57% al alza; mitad central entre -1,2 % y +1,7 %), y +1,0 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Dated a day after the move, but describes the accelerating early-March real depreciation, failed central bank swap intervention and Selic cut pricing that contributed to the same slide, though it is partly confirmatory rather than a distinct driver.
