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ING analysts expect the Fed to deliver at least another 175 basis points of hikes this year, driving US real rates into restrictive territory. They argue the US economy and dollar are better positioned than Europe, where inflation is supply-driven and stagflation risk is higher.
A sustained dollar bid tends to pressure dollar-priced commodities and weakens demand from importers with weaker currencies. Slower global growth from tighter policy would also reduce demand for feed inputs.
think.ing.comChris Turner, Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky, Valentin Tataru, Peter Virovacz13 jun 2022Tras 2356 eventos alcista de macro pasados, Dólar estadounidense (amplio) se movió una mediana de +0,2 % en 5 sesiones (60% al alza; mitad central entre -0,3 % y +0,7 %), y +0,4 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
ING expects at least 175bp more Fed hikes and sees the US better positioned than Europe, supporting dollar demand through rate and growth differentials.
