◂ Cronología del evento

2 mar 2020MACROEE. UU.

US asset markets: What Fed cuts mean for US Treasuries and the dollar

ING analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points over the first half of 2020 in response to coronavirus. They also forecast 10-year Treasury yields falling to 0.75% and EUR/USD rising to 1.15.

They see a supply shock turning into a financial shock and a possible demand shock, with a negative Q2 U.S. GDP print a clear possibility.

POR QUÉ IMPORTA

Lower U.S. rates and yields would weaken the dollar, which tends to support dollar-priced commodities. Expected demand weakness from the virus could also pressure energy and industrial-linked commodity prices.

AFECTA ADólar estadounidense (amplio)▼Euro (USD por EUR)▲Petróleo crudo (WTI)▼

FUENTE
think.ing.comJames Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Chris Turner2 mar 2020

Reacción de precios e historial

Dólar estadounidense (amplio)▼bajistaHASTA LA FECHA1d -0,7 %5d -0,8 %20d +4,0 %

Tras 1637 eventos bajista de macro pasados, Dólar estadounidense (amplio) se movió una mediana de -0,2 % en 5 sesiones (39% al alza; mitad central entre -0,6 % y +0,3 %), y -0,2 % en 20.

3 mar 2020Fed and the FX markets: Tainted carry | articles | ING THINK+0,3 %
26 jun 2018For the US dollar, the only way is not up | articles | ING THINK+0,8 %
20 sept 2024US Fed rate cuts: What does this mean for gold, equities, and emerging markets? | Julius Baer-0,2 %
28 abr 2021FX Daily: The patient Fed and the “nervous” dollar | articles | ING THINK+0,3 %
29 jul 2020US dollar breaking down, gold and the $A breaking up – what does it mean for investors? - Invest Blue+0,4 %

Euro (USD por EUR)▲alcistaHASTA LA FECHA1d +1,5 %5d +2,9 %20d +0,5 %

Tras 388 eventos alcista de macro pasados, Euro (USD por EUR) se movió una mediana de +0,3 % en 5 sesiones (62% al alza; mitad central entre -0,4 % y +1,1 %), y +0,1 % en 20.

28 jul 2020Rates Spark: The weaker USD, the Fed and cross currency | articles | ING THINK0,0 %
16 abr 2025G10 FX Talking: The medium-term dollar bear trend develops | articles | ING THINK+1,6 %
29 may 2026Euro-Dollar: Why Markets Think The ECB Will Hike Before The Fed-0,2 %
4 mar 2021FX: Dollar bounce underwhelms | articles | ING THINK-1,4 %
11 mar 2021EUR and ECB: Dovish for bonds, but not for EUR | articles | ING THINK+0,0 %

Petróleo crudo (WTI)▼bajistaHASTA LA FECHA1d +4,4 %5d -8,1 %20d -61,4 %

Tras 565 eventos bajista de macro pasados, Petróleo crudo (WTI) se movió una mediana de -1,4 % en 5 sesiones (41% al alza; mitad central entre -5,9 % y +3,0 %), y -0,5 % en 20.

8 sept 2022The Commodities Feed: USD strength and demand worries | articles | ING THINK+7,8 %
1 feb 2024The Commodities Feed: Fed comments weigh on the complex | articles | ING THINK-2,6 %
15 jul 2022What the dollar's surge means for the economy+0,6 %
27 ago 2021The Commodities Feed: USD holds the market back | snaps | ING THINK+3,9 %
19 jul 2018Dollar and gold falters as Trump hits fed, stocks drop: markets wrap - MINING.COM+2,5 %

Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.

Movimientos de precios vinculados

Euro (USD por EUR)+1,5 %1 periodo hasta 2 mar 20205,4σ
On 2 March ING expected aggressive Fed cuts and lower Treasury yields, which narrows the rate differential and supports EUR/USD.
Euro (USD por EUR)+2,9 %5 periodos hasta 6 mar 20204,4σ
Expectations of 100bp of Fed cuts and falling Treasury yields imply a narrowing rate differential, supporting a higher EUR/USD and reinforcing the dollar-weakness driver.
Dólar estadounidense (amplio)-0,7 %1 periodo hasta 2 mar 2020-4,4σ
Same-day ING view that Fed cuts will lower Treasury yields and the dollar reflects the expectations driving the move.

Dólar estadounidense (amplio) DXY · GP ▸

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Euro (USD por EUR) EURUSD · GP ▸

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