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StoneX analyst Josh Linville expects global phosphate values to stay under pressure into mid-2023 because world demand has been weaker than expected. He also cites China returning to normal export volumes and a high-cost Florida producer seeing its costs fall.
Expected weak demand and rising Chinese supply point to lower phosphate prices, which lowers DAP costs for feed phosphate buyers. Fall and spring demand are seen as cautious, so the pressure may persist.
stonex.comJosh Linville27 abr 2023stonex.comJosh Linville27 abr 2023Tras 480 eventos neutral de comercio pasados, Maíz se movió una mediana de +0,2 % en 5 sesiones (54% al alza; mitad central entre -1,1 % y +1,6 %), y +0,7 % en 20.
Tras 40 eventos bajista de comercio pasados, DAP se movió una mediana de -0,1 % en 5 sesiones (38% al alza; mitad central entre -3,7 % y +0,5 %), y -2,4 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
StoneX expects phosphate prices to stay under pressure because global demand is weaker than expected, China is returning to normal export volumes, and a high-cost Florida producer's costs are falling, all of which point to bearish supply and demand fundamentals consistent with a sharp DAP drop.
Dated 2023-04-27, a day before the drop, it signals weak global phosphate demand, China returning to normal export volumes and falling producer costs, all bearish for DAP prices and plausibly feeding a sharp one-day selloff.
StoneX's bearish view on phosphates (weak global demand, China returning to normal export volumes, falling producer costs) published on the move date points to supply-side and sentiment pressure on DAP prices.
StoneX expects phosphate values to stay under pressure due to weaker-than-expected demand and China returning to normal export volumes, which reinforces the bearish supply/demand mechanism.
