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StoneX analyst Nate Donnay estimates that US government dairy purchases in 2020 pushed the CME block cheese price up about 64 cents per pound and butter up 31 cents from May through November. He estimates the purchases lifted the average Class III milk price by about $6.30/cwt and Class IV by about $1.31/cwt.
Purchases through the food box program and other programs totaled roughly $1.33 billion.
Government buying has been a major source of dairy price support and volatility, so feed buyers should expect dairy-linked demand and milk prices to be sensitive to any reduction in these programs.
hoards.comNate Donnay, StoneX Group Inc.30 nov 2020Tras 17 eventos alcista de política pasados, Leche (Clase III) se movió una mediana de -0,6 % en 5 sesiones (29% al alza; mitad central entre -1,6 % y +0,2 %), y -3,0 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Shows government food box purchases had inflated cheese and Class III prices, so their fading removed support and fed the reversal.
