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China is banning phosphate exports through 2022, according to Michigan Farm News. Urea, DAP, MAP and potash averaged $572, $702, $776 and $598 per ton, all up 59% or more from 2020.
An industry agronomist said the move would hit growers and noted that China last cut supply this sharply in 2008.
China is the top phosphate exporter, so a ban tightens global DAP and MAP supply and pushes fertilizer costs up for feed grain producers.
michfb.com29 sept 2021
michiganfarmnews.comMitch Galloway, Farm News Media28 sept 2021Todavía no hay suficientes eventos comparables pasados para una lectura histórica.
Tras 151 eventos alcista de política pasados, DAP se movió una mediana de +0,0 % en 5 sesiones (50% al alza; mitad central entre -0,6 % y +0,9 %), y +1,9 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Report on 28 Sep that China is halting phosphate exports through 2022 is a direct supply shock to the largest exporter, which would push DAP prices up just before the 30 Sep move.
The reported China phosphate export ban through 2022 and already elevated DAP prices likely fed the market's repricing a few days before the move, so it is a contributing but earlier catalyst.
