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A University of Maryland study uses more than 34,000 yield observations from 25 countries back to 1900 to examine simultaneous crop shocks in global breadbaskets. It finds that maize yield shocks hit at least three of nine breadbaskets at once 10.3% of the time.
Shocks across four or five breadbaskets were much rarer.
The findings show that climate-driven shocks in several major grain regions can coincide, which raises the risk of sharp global maize price spikes. The study is a historical analysis and does not signal an immediate price move.
essic.umd.eduCazzy Medley2 feb 2023Tras 445 eventos neutral de clima pasados, Maíz se movió una mediana de +0,1 % en 5 sesiones (52% al alza; mitad central entre -1,4 % y +1,6 %), y +0,7 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
