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Commerzbank says the Brazilian real is well positioned over the medium term despite expected central bank rate cuts, and that the central bank could cut the Selic by 50 basis points to 11.75%. It warns the real could weaken in the short term if markets price in faster cuts.
The bank argues downside for the currency is limited given the central bank's inflation credibility.
A firmer real makes Brazilian soybean and corn exports less competitive in dollar terms and can slow farmer selling, while a weaker real would support export flows. The outlook is a currency view rather than a supply or demand shock.
octaafrica.net13 dic 2023Tras 92 eventos neutral de macro pasados, Real brasileño (BRL por USD) se movió una mediana de +0,4 % en 5 sesiones (58% al alza; mitad central entre -0,7 % y +1,4 %), y +0,4 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
