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Morningstar analysts say a US-Russia arrangement to exclude the Black Sea from the conflict would let Russia export fertilizer using EU ships if the EU approves. They expect limited price effects because Russian exports have already found markets in China and India.
They also expect potash prices to rise in 2025 as Belarus and Russia cut production.
Restored Russian fertilizer access adds supply that could cap prices, but the effect is expected to be small. Production cuts by Belarus and Russia support potash prices, which keeps input costs firm for feed-crop producers.
morningstar.comSeth Goldstein, CFA, Larry MacDougal via AP26 mar 2025Tras 11 eventos neutral de geopolítica pasados, Urea se movió una mediana de +0,4 % en 5 sesiones (64% al alza; mitad central entre -1,0 % y +5,9 %), y +7,8 % en 20.
Todavía no hay suficientes eventos comparables pasados para una lectura histórica.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
