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Global urea prices fell sharply in May as Brazilian importers shifted to cheaper ammonium sulfate, which Brazil now imports in larger volumes than urea. Urea futures fell to $542.50 per ton on May 21, down 22% from the monthly high.
China has been absent from urea exports through May 2026 under export controls, and its return could add significant downward pressure.
Brazil's substitution toward amsul reduces urea demand and pulls prices lower, while China's possible return with large latent export capacity is the main upside-to-downside risk for nitrogen prices.
fertilizerdaily.comKim Clarksen23 may 2026Tras 81 eventos bajista de comercio pasados, Urea se movió una mediana de -1,0 % en 5 sesiones (28% al alza; mitad central entre -7,2 % y +0,4 %), y -5,5 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Brazil's shift to ammonium sulfate cut urea import demand, and a possible return of Chinese exports added downward pressure, with futures down 22% from the monthly high.
Brazil's shift to ammonium sulfate cut urea import demand and urea futures had already fallen sharply in May, with China's return flagged as further downside pressure.
