A University of Arkansas economist says feeder cattle futures were highly volatile after the screwworm confirmation in Texas, with August contracts trading between $335 and $353. The market initially fell but then closed limit up.
The economist expects little change in retail beef prices, though local Texas and New Mexico cattle markets may be affected.
Nearby cattle markets face the most immediate price effects from movement restrictions and fear of spread. Retail beef prices are less affected, so the impact on feeder cattle futures is mainly a short-term volatility story.
Tras 29 eventos neutral de enfermedad pasados, Ganado de engorde (feeder) se movió una mediana de +0,6 % en 5 sesiones (62% al alza; mitad central entre -1,5 % y +2,2 %), y +1,0 % en 20.
Tras 69 eventos neutral de enfermedad pasados, Ganado en pie se movió una mediana de -0,1 % en 5 sesiones (42% al alza; mitad central entre -0,8 % y +0,6 %), y +0,9 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Economist commentary on the volatile feeder futures and limit-up close after the screwworm confirmation supports the same price action.