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USD/BRL traded near 5.09 in mid-July, leaving the real about 8% stronger than a year earlier. A 25% additional US tariff on non-exempt Brazilian imports takes effect July 22, with coffee, beef, orange juice and some energy products exempt.
The article says the Selic rate at 14.25% should limit the immediate currency impact.
The tariff could hit Brazilian export demand and weaken the real if it spreads to capital flows or the rate outlook, which would make Brazilian exports cheaper for other buyers. Exemptions for beef and coffee limit the direct effect on agricultural trade.
ebc.comCharon N.16 jul 2026Tras 16 eventos alcista de comercio pasados, Real brasileño (BRL por USD) se movió una mediana de -0,3 % en 5 sesiones (44% al alza; mitad central entre -1,4 % y +1,9 %), y +0,9 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
