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The week's FX drivers were expectations of faster US interest-rate increases after an FOMC hike and updated projections, plus fiscal and political risk in Brazil tied to fuel-pricing moves. Offsetting factors were a higher Selic that supports the real and easing Covid lockdowns in China that could revive Chinese demand for Brazilian exports.
A stronger dollar and higher Brazilian risk premiums push the USD/BRL rate up, which raises Brazil's local-currency returns on exports such as soybeans, corn and meal. The China demand recovery is a supportive factor for these export prices.
stonex.comStoneX Intelligence Brazil10 jun 2022Tras 301 eventos alcista de macro pasados, Real brasileño (BRL por USD) se movió una mediana de +0,4 % en 5 sesiones (57% al alza; mitad central entre -1,2 % y +1,7 %), y +1,0 % en 20.
Tras 2356 eventos alcista de macro pasados, Dólar estadounidense (amplio) se movió una mediana de +0,2 % en 5 sesiones (60% al alza; mitad central entre -0,3 % y +0,7 %), y +0,4 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Expectations of faster US rate hikes after the FOMC and Brazilian fiscal and political risk over fuel pricing drove dollar demand and BRL weakness during the move window, partly offset by a higher Selic.
