◂ Cronología del evento

30 abr 2026GEOPOLÍTICAAsia

From surplus to strain: Iran war and El Nino threaten global rice supply

Rice supply is expected to fall this year as Asian farmers cut acreage due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs from the Iran war. An emerging El Niño is also expected to squeeze output in top exporters and importers.

POR QUÉ IMPORTA

Expected output declines in major exporters like Thailand and Vietnam tighten global rice supply and can lift prices. Rice price moves have limited direct effect on feed formulation.

AFECTA AMaíz▲Arroz cáscara▲Urea▲

2 FUENTES
japantimes.co.jpNaveen Thukral, Panarat Thepgumpanat1 may 2026
thestar.com.myNaveen Thukral, Panarat Thepgumpanat30 abr 2026

Reacción de precios e historial

Maíz▲alcistaHASTA LA FECHA1d -0,2 %5d -1,6 %20d -0,5 %

Tras 323 eventos alcista de geopolítica pasados, Maíz se movió una mediana de +0,5 % en 5 sesiones (57% al alza; mitad central entre -1,5 % y +2,9 %), y +0,9 % en 20.

5 mar 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+2,4 %
24 feb 2022Ukraine Invasion Threatens Global Wheat Supply+6,5 %
19 jun 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1,1 %
12 ene 2023Corn prices to stay elevated as global supplies ‘remain tight’+2,2 %
3 jun 2022Feed the world: supply strains from the war in Ukraine - Hatchery InternationalHatchery International+5,5 %

Arroz cáscara▲alcistaHASTA LA FECHA1d +2,5 %5d +12,1 %20d +22,7 %

Tras 12 eventos alcista de geopolítica pasados, Arroz cáscara se movió una mediana de +1,6 % en 5 sesiones (58% al alza; mitad central entre -0,5 % y +6,8 %), y +5,4 % en 20.

1 may 2026Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why+8,1 %
1 may 2026It's not just oil: Why Iran war also threatens Asia's food security+8,1 %
25 sept 2026What’s Behind the Latest Surge in Grain and Oilseed Prices?-0,3 %
25 mar 2022The feed factor: Global maize shortage could affect local rice market | The Business Standard-0,0 %
23 abr 2018Egypt's rice farmers see rough times downstream of new Nile mega-dam-1,4 %

Urea▲alcistaHASTA LA FECHA1d -0,4 %5d -10,0 %20d -17,6 %

Tras 205 eventos alcista de geopolítica pasados, Urea se movió una mediana de +0,4 % en 5 sesiones (53% al alza; mitad central entre -2,1 % y +3,0 %), y -0,4 % en 20.

5 mar 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+3,0 %
6 jun 2020From the Persian Gulf to the granaries of Lithuania: the war in Iran threatens a price shock for food and fertiliser - Agrobitė+1,3 %
20 jun 2025Israel-Iran conflict leads to urea supply woes; global fob values rally by 25-30%+2,1 %
5 mar 2026Farmers see fertiliser price surge as Iran war blocks exports, threatening losses | Reuters+3,0 %
1 abr 2026The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production+10,6 %

Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.

Movimientos de precios vinculados

Arroz cáscara+12,1 %5 periodos hasta 6 may 20263,5σ
Expected lower global rice supply from reduced Asian acreage (fertilizer, fuel costs from Iran war) and El Niño raised supply-risk premium in the days leading to the move.
Arroz cáscara+11,2 %5 periodos hasta 4 may 20263,8σ
Reports of Asian acreage cuts from fertilizer and fuel costs plus El Niño risk point to tighter supply, which supports a rally in rice futures.
Arroz cáscara+4,6 %1 periodo hasta 3 may 20263,1σ
The 2026-04-30 report of expected lower global rice supply from acreage cuts and El Niño adds to supply-risk sentiment just before the move.

Maíz CORN · GP ▸

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Arroz cáscara RICE · GP ▸

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