ABN AMRO says Brazil faces external and domestic headwinds but is less vulnerable than Turkey because it has a smaller current account deficit and stronger foreign direct investment inflows. The bank flags the fiscal deficit, which has run above 5% of GDP since 2015, as the weakest point.
It expects the central bank to hold rates for the rest of 2018 and resume tightening in 2019.
Brazil's fiscal weakness and election uncertainty keep the real exposed to risk-off episodes, which can swing the cost of dollar-priced Brazilian grain and meal. Expected stable Selic rates through 2018 limit near-term currency support from monetary policy.
Nach 92 vergangenen Ereignisse (neutral, Makro) bewegte sich Brasilianischer Real (BRL pro USD) im Median über 5 Handelstage um +0,4 % (58% höher; mittlere Hälfte -0,7 % bis +1,4 %) und über 20 Handelstage um +0,4 %.
Veränderungen des Benchmarks jedes Rohstoffs seit dem letzten Schluss vor dem Ereignis. Historische Werte bündeln frühere Ereignisse derselben Art; sie beschreiben, was passiert ist, nicht was passieren wird. Keine Anlageberatung.