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Rabobank says global fertiliser stocks are rebuilding and urea and phosphate prices, now about half their two-year peaks, could fall as much as 15% over the next five months. About 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate are likely to reach the market after Beijing suspended exports.
Rising farm fuel prices and a lack of official guidance on Chinese export quotas add uncertainty.
Expected release of Chinese phosphate supply and rebuilding stocks should push DAP and urea prices lower, easing input costs for feed grain producers. Gas-linked risks could limit the decline, and China's export quota decisions remain a key swing factor.
farmonline.com.auAndrew Marshall24.04.2024Nach 34 vergangenen Ereignisse (bearisch, Politik) bewegte sich Harnstoff im Median über 5 Handelstage um -0,8 % (38% höher; mittlere Hälfte -3,3 % bis +1,8 %) und über 20 Handelstage um -4,5 %.
Nach 50 vergangenen Ereignisse (bearisch, Politik) bewegte sich DAP im Median über 5 Handelstage um +0,9 % (62% höher; mittlere Hälfte -0,1 % bis +1,6 %) und über 20 Handelstage um +0,9 %.
Nach 13 vergangenen Ereignisse (bullisch, Politik) bewegte sich Erdgas im Median über 5 Handelstage um -1,7 % (46% höher; mittlere Hälfte -2,4 % bis +4,5 %) und über 20 Handelstage um +5,3 %.
Veränderungen des Benchmarks jedes Rohstoffs seit dem letzten Schluss vor dem Ereignis. Historische Werte bündeln frühere Ereignisse derselben Art; sie beschreiben, was passiert ist, nicht was passieren wird. Keine Anlageberatung.
Rabobank's outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as roughly 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reach the market and stocks rebuild is a bearish supply and sentiment signal dated the day before the drop.
Rabobank's April 24 outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as stocks rebuild and about 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate may reach the market is a bearish supply and sentiment signal that fits the DAP drop.
Rabobank's forecast of rebuilding stocks, up to 15% further phosphate price declines and a potential ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market shifted supply expectations and sentiment bearishly.
Rabobank's forecast of further phosphate price declines and an expected ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market suggest supply-driven bearish sentiment, though the timing precedes the move by two days and the size of the drop is far greater than a gradual forecast implies.
