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ING analysts report that commodities rallied strongly in the first two months of 2021, led by oil, and that G10 commodity currencies have outperformed EM commodity currencies. They argue that long-term undervaluation could help the Russian rouble benefit from a second-half oil rally, while a decline in iron ore should weigh on the Australian dollar more than the Brazilian real.
A continued copper rally should support the Chilean peso.
Commodity currencies move with commodity export prices, so a second-half oil rally could strengthen petro-currencies and affect input costs for feed and biofuel supply chains. The analysis is an outlook rather than a new supply or demand event, so the direct effect on feed prices is limited.
think.ing.comFrancesco Pesole, Warren Patterson03.03.2021Nach 487 vergangenen Ereignisse (bullisch, Makro) bewegte sich Rohöl (WTI) im Median über 5 Handelstage um +1,0 % (60% höher; mittlere Hälfte -2,0 % bis +4,0 %) und über 20 Handelstage um +1,5 %.
Veränderungen des Benchmarks jedes Rohstoffs seit dem letzten Schluss vor dem Ereignis. Historische Werte bündeln frühere Ereignisse derselben Art; sie beschreiben, was passiert ist, nicht was passieren wird. Keine Anlageberatung.
