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Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark Selic rate by a half percentage point to a record low of 6%, more than the 18 of 45 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast. Policymakers said below-target inflation forecasts for 2020 leave room for further easing, and the economy is expected to grow less than 1% this year.
Lower Brazilian rates and expected further easing tend to weaken the real, which raises USD/BRL and can make dollar-priced Brazilian feed exports less competitive while supporting domestic demand.
dailymaverick.co.zaBloomberg01.08.2019Nach 301 vergangenen Ereignisse (bullisch, Makro) bewegte sich Brasilianischer Real (BRL pro USD) im Median über 5 Handelstage um +0,4 % (57% höher; mittlere Hälfte -1,2 % bis +1,7 %) und über 20 Handelstage um +1,0 %.
Veränderungen des Benchmarks jedes Rohstoffs seit dem letzten Schluss vor dem Ereignis. Historische Werte bündeln frühere Ereignisse derselben Art; sie beschreiben, was passiert ist, nicht was passieren wird. Keine Anlageberatung.
A larger-than-expected 50bp Selic cut to a record-low 6% with signaled further easing reduces BRL carry appeal and yield support, plausibly driving capital outflows and BRL depreciation (higher BRL per USD), though other global factors (e.g., Fed/trade-war risk-off around the same date) may have also contributed.
The larger-than-expected Selic cut to a record-low 6% on 2019-08-01, with signals of more easing, narrowed Brazil's interest-rate differential and weakened the real, which contributed to the BRL per USD rise in the window.
