# WASDE tightened US corn and soy stocks, yet corn still sits in the bottom quarter of its 52-week range while weak export pace and a strong dollar cap rallies

> Markets were quiet after Tuesday's WASDE: corn, soybeans and soybean meal each edged up 0.1%, and template feed costs rose 0.3% on the week but remain 5–6% below four weeks ago. US soybean and corn ending stocks came in well below trade estimates. Offsetting that, funds were selling, the dollar is near a 19-month high, the Brazilian real is at a 17-month low and US corn export commitments are lagging.

- By: Feedsoft Markets Desk (https://feedsoft.ai/authors/markets-desk)
- Published: 2026-11-13T11:30:44.761Z
- Section: Daily Brief
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/brief/2026-11-13
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Sorghum](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SORGHUM.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Fishmeal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FISHMEAL.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md), [Feeder Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FCATTLE.md), [Eggs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EGGS.md), [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md)

Markets were quiet after Tuesday's WASDE: corn, soybeans and soybean meal each edged up 0.1%, and template feed costs rose 0.3% on the week but remain 5–6% below four weeks ago. US soybean and corn ending stocks came in well below trade estimates. Offsetting that, funds were selling, the dollar is near a 19-month high, the Brazilian real is at a 17-month low and US corn export commitments are lagging.

## Grains: tighter US corn balance, soft demand signals

USDA put US corn ending stocks at 1,758 mil bu versus the 1,846 trade estimate, but also trimmed exports to 3,275 and the season-average price to $4.60/bu. Corn at $203.6/mt is at 27% of its 52-week range, and commitments are only 30% of the USDA export target versus a 42% five-year average. Elsewhere, Ukrainian wheat and corn export forecasts were cut by 3 mt and Russian seaborne grain exports fell to 2.3 mt in October. Australian growers are holding back sales on poor wheat and barley quality, and SRW wheat sits at 80% of its range. Rough rice hit a 52-week high (+77.8% y/y), and sorghum fell 1.7% to $149.2/mt, which may be worth pricing against corn where rations allow.

## Protein meals and oilseeds

The big surprise was US soybean ending stocks at 300 mil bu versus 332 expected, and soybean export commitments are running ahead of pace at 65% versus a 54% average. Soybean meal at $429.9/mt sits at 66% of its range, with the USDA meal price unchanged at $340/st. Meal export commitments lag at 31% versus a 39% average. Brazil's soybean planting is 67% done versus a 62.7% average, and the weak real supports Brazilian farmer selling into 2027. Germany passed its EU Deforestation Regulation law ahead of the 30 December start, a traceability cost to watch for EU buyers of soy meal and palm. Fishmeal remains elevated at $2,840/mt, 93% of its range.

## Livestock: hog margins at the floor

Lean hogs closed at a fresh 52-week low of $58.82/cwt (-30.2% y/y), and managed money is at a record net short. In China, self-breeding hog farms are losing about 447 yuan per head. Meanwhile 52% of the US beef cow herd is in drought-affected regions, which could slow herd rebuilding. Eggs jumped 10.3% as avian influenza activity rises in South Korea, and Class III milk is at 96% of its range after a sharp rally.

## Energy and macro

The dollar is near a 19-month high on bets of a December Fed hike after hot October CPI, and US PPI is due today. EUR/USD tested $1.1045, which raises dollar-priced ingredient costs for euro-zone buyers. USD/BRL rose to 5.65, its highest since June 2025, making Brazilian soy and corn more competitive against US origin. Crude is steady near $89 WTI after the IEA's demand-decline forecast, but diesel is still up 70.7% y/y, and St. Louis barge freight eased 6.5% to $29.7/mt.

## Positioning

In the week to 3 November, managed money cut net longs sharply across the complex: corn by 72k to 8.8k, soybeans by 51k, and soybean meal by 60k. Even so, the meal net long of 108k remains at the 91st percentile, which leaves room for further liquidation if Brazil's crop progresses well. SRW wheat net short deepened to -87k. Today's COT report will show positioning after the WASDE.

## Feed cost

All template formulas rose about 0.3% this week. For broiler grower, corn added $0.63/t and SBM $0.21/t, with no contribution from soy oil. Over four weeks the largest declines were in sow gestation (-6.6%, $198.6/t), pullet starter (-6.3%) and broiler starter (-6.2%). Swine creep fell least (-3.1%, $483.9/t). These are least-cost templates, not any mill's actual cost.

## Number of the day: 30%

US corn export commitments as share of USDA target vs 42% five-year average. Lagging exports help explain why corn has not rallied on the tighter stocks number; with corn at 27% of its 52-week range, buyers have reason to consider extending deferred coverage on dips, though a demand pickup could firm the market.

## What to watch

- 2026-11-13: US PPI release; a hot print could extend dollar strength and pressure US export competitiveness
- 2026-11-13: CFTC Commitments of Traders, 15:30 ET: watch whether soybean meal fund length (91st pctile) keeps unwinding post-WASDE
- 2026-11-16: USDA Crop Progress & Condition, 16:00 ET
- 2026-11-18: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status, 10:30 ET: ethanol output, relevant for DDGS supply
- 2026-12-10: Next WASDE; EU Deforestation Regulation takes effect for large and medium operators on 2026-12-30

## Stories cited

- 2026-11-10 · [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/991-usda-wasde-report-2026-11-10.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [USDA cuts forecast for Ukrainian wheat and corn exports by 3 million tonnes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97554-usda-cuts-forecast-for-ukrainian-wheat-and-corn-exports-by-3-million-tonnes.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Russia: grain exports collapse - Der Schweizer Bauer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97555-russia-grain-exports-collapse-der-schweizer-bauer.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Corn falls sharply while wheat holds its price. What are the elevators paying?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97593-corn-falls-sharply-while-wheat-holds-its-price-what-are-the-elevators-paying.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Australian farmers hold back wheat and barley sales amid deteriorating crop quality](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97576-australian-farmers-hold-back-wheat-and-barley-sales-amid-deteriorating-crop.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Millions of tonnes delivered as harvest ramps up](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97577-millions-of-tonnes-delivered-as-harvest-ramps-up.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [USDA Lowers Forecasts for Soybean Production and Exports from Ukraine – Ukraine open for business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97571-usda-lowers-forecasts-for-soybean-production-and-exports-from-ukraine-ukraine.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Soybean planting in Brazil reaches 67% of the projected area](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97552-soybean-planting-in-brazil-reaches-67-of-the-projected-area.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [US Soybean Farmers Look to China for Long-Term Growth](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97556-us-soybean-farmers-look-to-china-for-long-term-growth.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Bundestag passes new rules for coffee, cocoa and soy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97597-bundestag-passes-new-rules-for-coffee-cocoa-and-soy.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [EU Deforestation Rule Puts $1.3 Billion of Indian Exports at Risk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97595-eu-deforestation-rule-puts-1-3-billion-of-indian-exports-at-risk.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Dollar rises 1.6% to R$5.65; stock market falls](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97529-dollar-rises-1-6-to-r-5-65-stock-market-falls.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Drought could slow cattle herd recovery | Livestock | farmweeknow.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97589-drought-could-slow-cattle-herd-recovery-livestock-farmweeknow-com.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Supply Strong, Demand Weak Pattern Continues; Short-Term Room for Hog Price Rebound Likely Limited](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97581-supply-strong-demand-weak-pattern-continues-short-term-room-for-hog-price.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Hog Prices Rise More Than 5%: Can Breeders Recover From Deep Losses?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97583-hog-prices-rise-more-than-5-can-breeders-recover-from-deep-losses.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [South Korea confirms H5N9 bird flu at 48,000-hen layer farm in Incheon's Ganghwa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97561-south-korea-confirms-h5n9-bird-flu-at-48-000-hen-layer-farm-in-incheon-s-ganghwa.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza: livestock diseases warned for winter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97559-foot-and-mouth-disease-and-avian-influenza-livestock-diseases-warned-for-winter.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [The FX Trader: How much further can USD rally extend?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97521-the-fx-trader-how-much-further-can-usd-rally-extend.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Forex Today: Markets cling to a cautious stance ahead of US producer inflation data](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97522-forex-today-markets-cling-to-a-cautious-stance-ahead-of-us-producer-inflation.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [EURUSD: Euro Slumps to Long-Term Support at $1.1045, Dollar Holds Near Recent High](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97525-eurusd-euro-slumps-to-long-term-support-at-1-1045-dollar-holds-near-recent-high.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Doubts over fiscal plan and external outlook weigh on real and Ibovespa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97528-doubts-over-fiscal-plan-and-external-outlook-weigh-on-real-and-ibovespa.md)
- 2026-11-13 · [Oil Market Report - November 2026 - IEA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/97564-oil-market-report-november-2026-iea.md)

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.