# WASDE tightened US corn and soy stocks, yet corn sits in the lower third of its 52-week range: a reasonable window to extend corn coverage

> Two days after a bullish WASDE, which put US soybean ending stocks at 300 mil bu against a 332 trade estimate and corn at 1,758 against 1,846, benchmark corn, soybeans and soybean meal were flat on the day. Template feed costs rose 0.6% on the week but remain about 5–6% below four weeks ago. The dollar is at 19-month highs after hot US CPI, and crude eased on peace hopes and rising Middle East output.

- By: Feedsoft Markets Desk (https://feedsoft.ai/authors/markets-desk)
- Published: 2026-11-12T11:30:59.871Z
- Section: Daily Brief
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/brief/2026-11-12
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Sorghum](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SORGHUM.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Sunflower Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SUNMEAL.md), [Cottonseed Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CSM.md), [Corn Gluten Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CGM.md), [Feather Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FEATHER.md), [Meat & Bone Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MBM.md), [DDGS](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DDGS.md), [Blood Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BLOODMEAL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Tallow](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TALLOW.md), [Choice White Grease](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CWG.md), [Yellow Grease](https://feedsoft.ai/c/YGREASE.md), [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md), [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md), [Feeder Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/FCATTLE.md), [Eggs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EGGS.md), [Chicken](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CHICKEN.md), [Turkey](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TURKEY.md), [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Barge Freight (St. Louis)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARGE.md), [Ocean Grain Freight](https://feedsoft.ai/c/OCEANFRT.md)

Two days after a bullish WASDE, which put US soybean ending stocks at 300 mil bu against a 332 trade estimate and corn at 1,758 against 1,846, benchmark corn, soybeans and soybean meal were flat on the day. Template feed costs rose 0.6% on the week but remain about 5–6% below four weeks ago. The dollar is at 19-month highs after hot US CPI, and crude eased on peace hopes and rising Middle East output.

## Grains

Corn is at $204.8/t, 30% of its 52-week range and up only 2.3% y/y, despite WASDE cutting yield to 179.6 bu/a from 181.2 and stocks coming in 4.8% under trade estimates. Soybeans are at $452.7/t (68% of range) after a 2.1% jump on 11-10. US corn export commitments are lagging at 30% of USDA's estimate vs a 42% five-year average, which may cap upside, while soy is ahead at 65% vs 54%. SRW wheat is near the top of its range at 81% (+18.5% y/y), and EU winter-wheat moisture is favourable; adding corn coverage at these levels looks better value than wheat inclusion.

## Protein meals

SBM is at $429.9/t, 66% of range, and WASDE left its price projection unchanged at $340/st. US meal export commitments trail at 31% vs a 39% five-year average. Alternative proteins are expensive: cottonseed meal, corn gluten meal, feather meal and linseed meal are all at 100% of their ranges, sunflower meal at 97% and canola meal at 92% (weekly data as of 11-02). That argues for leaning on SBM where formulas allow. MBM (-4.4% w/w, 16% of range) and DDGS (-2.1% w/w) are the softer spots worth bidding.

## Fats & oils

Soybean oil is at $1,549/t, 82% of range, even though WASDE cut its price projection to 68¢/lb from 70. ADM credits strong biofuel margins for raised guidance. Palm oil fell 6.9% over five days on record Malaysian stocks before bouncing 2.2%. Among animal fats, choice white grease dropped 5.2% w/w to 26% of range and is the cheapest fat relative to its year.

## Livestock & disease

Lean hogs are at $59.7/cwt, 2% of range and -29.8% y/y, and China's live pig price is down 20.5% y/y; weak hog margins could temper swine-feed demand. Bird flu is spreading. HPAI was confirmed in an Oregon dairy herd for the first time, Japan is culling 200,000 hens in Kyoto, and England's housing order starts Nov 13. US eggs rose 20.8% on 11-10. Class III milk is up about 17% over five days on record cheese prices.

## Energy, freight & macro

Crude headed toward two-month lows on higher Saudi and Iraqi output and Ukraine and Iran peace hopes, but diesel is still $4.51/gal (+79.8% y/y) after refinery outages. The dollar hit a 19-month high on Fed-hike bets after CPI, and the euro is at an 18-month low. That is a headwind for US export demand but a cost for non-USD importers. Ocean grain freight is at the top of its range at $53.75/t; barge rates are mid-range. The US-China port-fee pause runs to Jan 10.

## Positioning

As of Nov 3, before WASDE, managed money had cut its corn net long by 72k contracts to 8,795 (52nd percentile). Funds trimmed SBM by 60k, but it remains at the 91st percentile, which leaves meal vulnerable to further liquidation. SRW wheat is net short at the 20th percentile, and lean hogs are at a record short (0th percentile). Friday's COT will show post-WASDE repositioning.

## Feed cost

All template formulas rose 0.4–0.7% this week; beef feedlot finisher posted the largest gain at +0.7%. Over four weeks, sow gestation fell most (-6.3%) and swine creep least (-2.9%). Corn drove the broiler grower increase (+$1.42/t), with SBM adding $0.26/t and soy oil nil. These are least-cost template formulas, not any mill's actual cost.

## Number of the day: 300 mil bu

USDA US soybean ending stocks vs 332.2 trade estimate. A 9.7% miss to the tight side, with funds still long SBM at the 91st percentile, keeps meal sensitive to export and weather news even as prices held flat today.

## What to watch

- 2026-11-12: USDA Export Sales 08:30 ET: does corn pace (30% vs 42% avg) improve?
- 2026-11-12: US Drought Monitor 08:30 ET
- 2026-11-13: CFTC Commitments of Traders: first look at post-WASDE fund moves in corn and SBM
- 2026-11-16: USDA Crop Progress & Condition 16:00 ET
- 2026-12-10: Next WASDE; US-China port-fee pause expires Jan 10

## Stories cited

- 2026-11-10 · [USDA WASDE report](https://feedsoft.ai/events/991-usda-wasde-report-2026-11-10.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [El Niño Weather Risk Moves Grain Trade and Shifts Focus to Exports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95306-el-nino-weather-risk-moves-grain-trade-and-shifts-focus-to-exports.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [European wheat weather: recent rainfall favorable, Black Sea frost risk needs attention](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95323-european-wheat-weather-recent-rainfall-favorable-black-sea-frost-risk-needs.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [India's wheat plantings hit record high as weather takes centre stage](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95318-india-s-wheat-plantings-hit-record-high-as-weather-takes-centre-stage.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [How Far Can Biofuels Carry ADM (NYSE:ADM)?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95330-how-far-can-biofuels-carry-adm-nyse-adm.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [B50 Consistency Push Meets New Capacity and a Lower Malaysian Reference Price](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95312-b50-consistency-push-meets-new-capacity-and-a-lower-malaysian-reference-price.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [China's live pig price falls 20.5% year on year to RMB10.11/kg as slaughter weights climb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95332-china-s-live-pig-price-falls-20-5-year-on-year-to-rmb10-11-kg-as-slaughter.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Bird flu confirmed in Oregon dairy herd for the first time](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95313-bird-flu-confirmed-in-oregon-dairy-herd-for-the-first-time.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Japan confirms 1st bird flu of season in Kyoto, to cull 200,000 birds](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95315-japan-confirms-1st-bird-flu-of-season-in-kyoto-to-cull-200-000-birds.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Japan Culls 200,000 Hens as Egg Prices Hit Record High](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95265-japan-culls-200-000-hens-as-egg-prices-hit-record-high.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [3000 Christmas turkeys in Cratfield in Suffolk forced indoors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95264-3000-christmas-turkeys-in-cratfield-in-suffolk-forced-indoors.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Cattle futures mixed as profit taking follows two-day rally - CME | The Cattle Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95261-cattle-futures-mixed-as-profit-taking-follows-two-day-rally-cme-the-cattle-site.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Oil Prices Drop to Two-Month Low as Middle East Production Surges](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95275-oil-prices-drop-to-two-month-low-as-middle-east-production-surges.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Oil falls toward two-month low as Middle East production rises - Moneyweb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95271-oil-falls-toward-two-month-low-as-middle-east-production-rises-moneyweb.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Perfect Storm of Events Drives Diesel Prices Higher](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95280-perfect-storm-of-events-drives-diesel-prices-higher.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Dollar hits 19-month high on Fed hike bets; yen nears 160](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95297-dollar-hits-19-month-high-on-fed-hike-bets-yen-nears-160.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [US Dollar Index: Fed pricing supports renewed strength – Deutsche Bank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95283-us-dollar-index-fed-pricing-supports-renewed-strength-deutsche-bank.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Euro falls further against US dollar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95289-euro-falls-further-against-us-dollar.md)
- 2026-11-12 · [Freightos Weekly Update: LA/LB strike deadline extended; Democratic win adds trade uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/95339-freightos-weekly-update-la-lb-strike-deadline-extended-democratic-win-adds.md)

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.